Commodity Atlas
Categories/Energy/Natural Gas/Concept

Storage Cycles and Seasonal Structure

Gas forward curves are heavily shaped by storage injection and withdrawal cycles, making calendar spreads essential risk instruments.

Core Points

  • Injection season expectations steer winter strip pricing.
  • Inventory deficits increase sensitivity to forecast revisions.
  • Calendar spreads often lead outright moves during inventory stress.

Case Studies

Case: Weak Injection Season

Lower-than-expected injections tightened winter spreads and increased prompt volatility as weather uncertainty persisted.

Case: Mild Winter Premium Collapse

A mild weather run reduced withdrawal pressure and compressed winter premium rapidly across key hubs.

References

Last reviewed: 2026-03-21